Bob B.
Bob the Excel Guru?
Posts: 3,072
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Post by Bob B. on Sept 8, 2005 17:42:53 GMT -4
One bit of information I've gleaned from my reading about the Johnstown flood: An earthen dam is a fine way to hold back water, provided that you never allow water to flow over the crest of the dam. If it does, you are In Trouble. That's what happened at South Fork. When the water overtopped the dam it fell onto the sloping downstream face, scouring away the earth until the dam was fatally weakened. Bob, you're a civil engineer. What does your training tell you about this? I just realized I never answered your question, sorry about that. I have little experience with dams and levees but I can tell what I do know. Your description of the South Fork incident is as I understand it. If an earthen dam is holding back a stationary mass of water then you have no current to cause erosion. However, as soon as the dam is crested you have a flowing stream that will begin to erode the earthen structure. Flowing water is extremely powerful and can caused tremendous erosion in a very short period of time. Most dams have spillways that allow the controlled release of water through a protected channel so that the top of the dam is never crested. It is my understanding that the South Fork dam’s spillway had become clogged through the years with trees and debris, thus it was none functioning. Dead Hoosiers laughed about the rodent problem Puma spoke of, but this sounds like a very serious problem to me. Anytime you get a flow of water through a dam, dike, or levee, you’re likely in big trouble. A trickle can very quickly turn into a torrent, and eventually into complete failure. One should never underestimate the power of flowing water.
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Post by ktesibios on Sept 8, 2005 22:21:58 GMT -4
Thanks Bob. To fill in a couple of details about the South Fork dam failure:
The discharge pipes which were originally part of the dam had been removed and sold for scrap before the South Fork fishing and Hunting Club bought the property and rebuilt the dam. Consequently there was no way to release water in a controlled way to lower the level of the artificial lake.
The spillways may not have been adequate to handle the amount of water coming into the lake in the first place; the club had installed "fish screens" in them to prevent fish from escaping the lake. These screens quickly became clogged with driftwood and debris.
Finally, the repairs to the dam had left a sag at the center of the crest.
Later investigation found that noone with any engineering qualifications had been consulted before the club repaired the dam and created a lake behind it.
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Post by turbonium on Sept 8, 2005 22:23:17 GMT -4
Is that when the world is going to end? Cool... just in time for my 30th birthday! 30 years old? Why, you're just a pup! ;D
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Post by LunarOrbit on Sept 9, 2005 0:10:47 GMT -4
30 years old? Why, you're just a pup! ;D Thanks. I am starting to realize that I'm getting old though... it's pretty shocking the first time you realize that you're technically old enough to be the father of a co-worker (I work with a 16 year old... but I'm pretty sure I didn't father any children when I was 14). The other day I realized I'm five years older than my mother was when she gave birth to me. That means I have memories of my mother from when I was 5 years old and she was the age I am now. It's a weird realization because when you are a child you always think your parents are really old, and now I realize how young they really were. Anyhow... I guess I was living in denial (see, this is still on topic).
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Post by rustylander on Sept 9, 2005 1:12:13 GMT -4
Ok, here's something I just came across today. This is not what I have based my claim of something else happening in September but this is interesting:
Order of events given to Chuck Youngbrandt on April 21, 1977 that appear to be a descr-iption mostly of the first half of the tribulation period.
He describes a 3 year order of events.
This was sent from a supporter who went through and dug out tips and notes from his book:
First year of events (2005)
1. Do not buy an air conditioner - get used to the heat.
2. Do buy gas cans and store white gas. (I assume white gas means propane).
3. Spring rain will be followed by summer heat and gas shortages.
4. The dollar will begin to slide in July. For this reason, crude oil imported to the United States will increase sharply and there will be gold value problems.
5. Temperature rise will begin in early June, (Chuck asked the Lord "when in early June?" Jesus said, "June 9".) and climb in temperature reaching peak temperatures in July and this will hold all through July, August, and September followed by sudden and drastic temperature drop in October.
6. There will be no rain of any significance from mid-June and on.
7. Devestating Hurricane to hit New Orleans in September
8. During that same month, on Sept. 19 an earthquake will hit St. Louis with the affects being felt in Chicago.
9.Devestating earthquake in California (San Francisco) in October.
10. The President will be in serious trouble by December.
11. Japan and China will become friends through economic agreements this year and arrange certain defense agreements that will seem aimed at Russia-but secretly aimed initially at the United States. This will be a great deception. The United States will fall for it. Japanese government will change character drastically in a visible way.
12. The angel of death awaits through this year.
13. Continue in faith. The Net of Prayer will grow steadily and then unexpectedly-be ready!
14. Do not fear. This year many will lose jobs and city and state governments will fail suddenly.
15. There will be serious economic crumbling. Psalm 37:39 quoted.
16. Disease will start from California and move east. Many left incapacitated.
17. From Georgia a plague to kill thousands as it spreads. Panic and fear will grip the nation.
18. Food riots will break out in August in many major cities.
19. Food costs to soar, availability declines, quality poor, hoarding magnifies the problems.
20. Government tries, but fails to instill confidence.
21. Those who rebel against God will also rebel against government and hundreds of thousands will want for food and starvation begins. Psalm 37:35 quoted.
22. Heat is unbearable. No rain. Multitudes curse God but those touched by love of Christ will repent and God will spare them. Psalm 53:1 quoted.
23. Power outs caused by heat. Fuel shortage grows worse.
24. Riots and deliberate destruction by enraged individuals and extremist groups aiming at overthrow of the government. Proverbs 3:25, 26 quoted.
25. Local police will fail to deal with violence and State troupes will be called out and in some areas, the violence will be so severe that Federal troops and tanks will have to be called out. Psalm 125:1 quoted.
26. In December Russia will "accidentally" nuke 4 American cities, Lexington, KY, Richmond, VA, Columbia, SC and just north of New York City. The U.S. Counter attacks and hits three Russian cities.
The acid (or emperical evidence) test of the above is whether or not an earthquake occurs on September 19th. If not, then we can dismiss it. Otherwise, we will have to give it some serious consideration.
Other sources tell me that September 27th is significant.
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Post by LunarOrbit on Sept 9, 2005 1:18:14 GMT -4
Ok, here's something I just came across today. This is not what I have based my claim of something else happening in September but this is interesting: Order of events given to Chuck Youngbrandt on April 21, 1977 that appear to be a descr-iption mostly of the first half of the tribulation period.
He describes a 3 year order of events.
This was sent from a supporter who went through and dug out tips and notes from his book:
First year of events (2005)
1. Do not buy an air conditioner - get used to the heat.
2. Do buy gas cans and store white gas. (I assume white gas means propane).
3. Spring rain will be followed by summer heat and gas shortages.
4. The dollar will begin to slide in July. For this reason, crude oil imported to the United States will increase sharply and there will be gold value problems.
5. Temperature rise will begin in early June, (Chuck asked the Lord "when in early June?" Jesus said, "June 9".) and climb in temperature reaching peak temperatures in July and this will hold all through July, August, and September followed by sudden and drastic temperature drop in October.
6. There will be no rain of any significance from mid-June and on.
7. Devestating Hurricane to hit New Orleans in September
8. During that same month, on Sept. 19 an earthquake will hit St. Louis with the affects being felt in Chicago.
9.Devestating earthquake in California (San Francisco) in October.
10. The President will be in serious trouble by December.
11. Japan and China will become friends through economic agreements this year and arrange certain defense agreements that will seem aimed at Russia-but secretly aimed initially at the United States. This will be a great deception. The United States will fall for it. Japanese government will change character drastically in a visible way.
12. The angel of death awaits through this year.
13. Continue in faith. The Net of Prayer will grow steadily and then unexpectedly-be ready!
14. Do not fear. This year many will lose jobs and city and state governments will fail suddenly.
15. There will be serious economic crumbling. Psalm 37:39 quoted.
16. Disease will start from California and move east. Many left incapacitated.
17. From Georgia a plague to kill thousands as it spreads. Panic and fear will grip the nation.
18. Food riots will break out in August in many major cities.
19. Food costs to soar, availability declines, quality poor, hoarding magnifies the problems.
20. Government tries, but fails to instill confidence.
21. Those who rebel against God will also rebel against government and hundreds of thousands will want for food and starvation begins. Psalm 37:35 quoted.
22. Heat is unbearable. No rain. Multitudes curse God but those touched by love of Christ will repent and God will spare them. Psalm 53:1 quoted.
23. Power outs caused by heat. Fuel shortage grows worse.
24. Riots and deliberate destruction by enraged individuals and extremist groups aiming at overthrow of the government. Proverbs 3:25, 26 quoted.
25. Local police will fail to deal with violence and State troupes will be called out and in some areas, the violence will be so severe that Federal troops and tanks will have to be called out. Psalm 125:1 quoted.
26. In December Russia will "accidentally" nuke 4 American cities, Lexington, KY, Richmond, VA, Columbia, SC and just north of New York City. The U.S. Counter attacks and hits three Russian cities.The acid (or emperical evidence) test of the above is whether or not an earthquake occurs on September 19th. If not, then we can dismiss it. Otherwise, we will have to give it some serious consideration. Other sources tell me that September 27th is significant. I am quoting your message so that if you try to alter it we will have a copy of the original.
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Post by rustylander on Sept 9, 2005 1:32:16 GMT -4
Come on - I wouldn't do something that that! Besides, they aren't my words or predictions.
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Post by rustylander on Sept 9, 2005 1:40:13 GMT -4
On reflection, I already see problems with the above predictions. There were no food riots in August so far as I know and Katrina, striclty speaking, actually occurred at the end of August, not in September though the devastatiing results came in September.
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Bob B.
Bob the Excel Guru?
Posts: 3,072
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Post by Bob B. on Sept 9, 2005 9:37:46 GMT -4
I am starting to realize that I'm getting old though... it's pretty shocking the first time you realize that you're technically old enough to be the father of a co-worker (I work with a 16 year old... but I'm pretty sure I didn't father any children when I was 14). It even get worse when you realize you're old enough to be a grandfather. A few years after I graduated college I brought home a kitten that was hanging out on a jobsite I was working on. Today that cat is older them some of the engineering students we have working for us. I think my thirties was one of the best periods of my life.
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Post by Captain Kidd on Sept 9, 2005 11:00:39 GMT -4
I think my thirties was one of the best periods of my life. I hope so, I've got 6 months left being a "twentysomething".
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Post by sts60 on Sept 9, 2005 14:10:02 GMT -4
Order of events given to Chuck Youngbrandt on April 21, 1977 that appear to be a descr-iption mostly of the first half of the tribulation period.
He describes a 3 year order of events.
He did? When, exactly, did he publish these predictions for 2005?
This was sent from a supporter who went through and dug out tips and notes from his book:
Oh, wait... retroactive, second-hand "predictions". And generally lame ones at that.
Well, let's just assume Mr. Youngbrandt actually published these specific predictions for 2005 in advance...
1. Do not buy an air conditioner - get used to the heat.
Ever hear of "global warming"?
2. Do buy gas cans and store white gas. (I assume white gas means propane).
White gas isn't propane. And this isn't a prediction. I predict somebody's gonna burn their house down, though, if they follow the words of a crackpot advising them to turn their house into a flammable-gas depot.
3. Spring rain will be followed by summer heat and gas shortages.
Rain in the spring and heat in the summer? I stand corrected... he really is a prophet!
We could charitably score "gas shortages" as a hit, but the prediction is too vague to be of any use - even the most transient shortage for any reason could be claimed.
4. The dollar will begin to slide in July. For this reason, crude oil imported to the United States will increase sharply and there will be gold value problems.
I don't think the dollar "began to slide" in July, and there have been no "gold value problems" AFAIK - which is too meaningless to be a useful prediction anyway.
There has been no spike in crude oil imports as a result of dollar values or "gold value problems". The idea doesn't make much sense anyway. If the dollar slid, it would be more expensive to import oil.
5. Temperature rise will begin in early June, (Chuck asked the Lord "when in early June?" Jesus said, "June 9".) and climb in temperature reaching peak temperatures in July
Temperatures rising as summer begins? And continuing to rise in July? Wow!
and this will hold all through July, August, and September followed by sudden and drastic temperature drop in October.
Temperatures in these parts were mighty hot through July and the first half of August. They've been cooling off slowly and irregularly, as usual. The only meaningful part of this prediction fails.
6. There will be no rain of any significance from mid-June and on.
False. There has indeed been rain "of significance". As usual, some parts of the U.S. get it and some parts are dry.
7. Devestating Hurricane to hit New Orleans in September
August. In any case, NO is regularly threatened by hurricanes, and "devastating" is open to interpretation. But we'll score this one a hit anyway.
Now, what other hurricane "predictions" were made (and when)?
8. During that same month, on Sept. 19 an earthquake will hit St. Louis with the affects being felt in Chicago.
I predict this will not occur.
9.Devestating earthquake in California (San Francisco) in October.
Maybe... but California gets lots of earthquakes. We'll see.
10. The President will be in serious trouble by December.
Useless. The President has been in serious trouble since before the start of this year.
11. Japan and China will become friends through economic agreements this year and arrange certain defense agreements that will seem aimed at Russia-but secretly aimed initially at the United States. This will be a great deception. The United States will fall for it. Japanese government will change character drastically in a visible way.
I predict this won't happen.
12. The angel of death awaits through this year.
Meaningless.
13. Continue in faith. The Net of Prayer will grow steadily and then unexpectedly-be ready!
Meaningless. How would you falsify this?
14. Do not fear. This year many will lose jobs and city and state governments will fail suddenly.
Many always use their jobs. Meaningless.
No city or state government has "failed suddenly", though NO government has been disabled by the hurricane...
We can score maybe one-half of a hit for #14. We'll see if any other city and state governments will fail suddenly this year.
15. There will be serious economic crumbling. Psalm 37:39 quoted.
Too vague to be useful. One could claim the Gulf Coast disaster to be economic "crumbling", but it was really a sharp hit like any other major disaster event. One-quarter hit.
16. Disease will start from California and move east. Many left incapacitated.
I predict this will not happen in any meaningful sense.
17. From Georgia a plague to kill thousands as it spreads. Panic and fear will grip the nation.
I predict this will not happen.
18. Food riots will break out in August in many major cities.
False.
19. Food costs to soar, availability declines, quality poor, hoarding magnifies the problems.
3-1/2 months for this prediction to come true.
20. Government tries, but fails to instill confidence.
Too vague to be useful. And this has been going on since we invaded Iraq and found neither al Qaeda nor WMDs.
21. Those who rebel against God will also rebel against government and hundreds of thousands will want for food and starvation begins. Psalm 37:35 quoted.
Useless, and out-of-date even if made in 1977. Hundreds of thousands have been wanting and starving for millenia.
22. Heat is unbearable. No rain.
Heat's always unbearable in places in the summer. Trust me, I lived in Houston.
There has been rain. So that part's false.
Multitudes curse God but those touched by love of Christ will repent and God will spare them. Psalm 53:1 quoted.
Useless. No way to falsify.
23. Power outs caused by heat. Fuel shortage grows worse.
No significant power failures caused by heat - though most years see some brownouts or blackouts. Fuel shortages due to hurricane damage have stabilized.
24. Riots and deliberate destruction by enraged individuals and extremist groups aiming at overthrow of the government. Proverbs 3:25, 26 quoted.
Like religious fanatics?
Anyway, hasn't happened this year yet.
25. Local police will fail to deal with violence and State troupes will be called out and in some areas, the violence will be so severe that Federal troops and tanks will have to be called out. Psalm 125:1 quoted.
A partial hit due to Katrina, though federal troops certainly haven't brought tanks to New Orleans!
26. In December Russia will "accidentally" nuke 4 American cities, Lexington, KY, Richmond, VA, Columbia, SC and just north of New York City. The U.S. Counter attacks and hits three Russian cities.
I predict this will be the most spectacular failure of this list!
The acid (or emperical evidence) test of the above is whether or not an earthquake occurs on September 19th. If not, then we can dismiss it. Otherwise, we will have to give it some serious consideration.
Earthquakes happen all the time. Can you be more specific?
Other sources tell me that September 27th is significant.[/b
Meaningless.
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Post by PhantomWolf on Sept 9, 2005 23:36:00 GMT -4
It's a tough job being a prophet. God told us to measure everything they predict and if they get just one thing wrong, they're not to be listened too. (Well actully he said they were to be taken outside the camp and stoned because they were trying to speak for God without his support.) That mean if just one thing on the list is wrong, it's invalid, and no food riots........
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Post by PhantomWolf on Sept 9, 2005 23:38:47 GMT -4
By the way, I did up a list 2 years in a row, the second I published on the net prior to the year, the previous one I had just done up for fun. I got an 80% and a 70% strike rate.
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Post by rustylander on Sept 15, 2005 2:46:22 GMT -4
There may be an assassination attempt on Bush on Sept 17th.
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Post by LunarOrbit on Sept 15, 2005 2:52:24 GMT -4
Oh great... now the FBI and the Secret Service are going to be paying this forum a visit all because you said those certain words. Don't you know they have software to scan the entire interweb for threats like that? To the kind government agents reading this: I have nothing to do with it... I'm a harmless Canadian.
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