|
Post by VALIS on Nov 27, 2008 21:58:10 GMT -4
Well the question I'd have is "Is it a valid prediction if all the indicators are pointing in that direction?" If I look at a weather map and see a low heading towards me, can I call it a correct prediction if I say "It's going to rain in the next few days."? The fact is that Oil prices had slumped fairly dramatically in the three months up to the prediction, so yes, he was right, but was it really a valid prediction or was it just a good reading of the markets? Maybe it's a nuance I don't get in the word "prediction" since English is my second language but I'd definitely answer yes. The predictions you just described are normally done respectively by meteorologists and economists. It's not because a prediction has roots in reality that it's invalid, otherwise it would mean that science can't predict. I think those are actually the best predictions But I think we assume too much. I see no compelling evidence that the guy read the market to make a correct prediction. He may have been totally clueless and just got lucky on a wild guess. He may have read the price on a Ouija board. He himself claims no market knowledge, only illuminati insider information. Whatever the reason (and I stress that I don't accept the illuminati explanation) he got it right Jason, I admit your Clinton prediction was more impressive. However you also predicted low cannibalism rates in the USA and I hope you had fairly high confidence on this one
|
|
Jason
Pluto
May all your hits be crits
Posts: 5,579
|
Post by Jason on Nov 28, 2008 1:00:29 GMT -4
Jason, I admit your Clinton prediction was more impressive. However you also predicted low cannibalism rates in the USA and I hope you had fairly high confidence on this one We'll know in about 24 more years, though apparently wdmundt won't be on the board to pay up.
|
|
|
Post by ineluki on Nov 28, 2008 9:55:09 GMT -4
Well the question I'd have is "Is it a valid prediction if all the indicators are pointing in that direction?" Maybe it's a nuance I don't get in the word "prediction" since English is my second language but I'd definitely answer yes. Well if you go by the "standard definition" by www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/predicting"verb: to declare or indicate in advance ; especially : foretell on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reason" you are of course right. However, as we are in the "beyond belief"-subforum, we are (at least thats how i understand it) talking probably about predictions based on some supernatural abilities.
|
|
|
Post by BertL on Nov 28, 2008 18:35:39 GMT -4
Yeah, in this forum's context, predictions would be expected to be prophecies.
|
|
|
Post by lionking on Dec 10, 2008 13:39:26 GMT -4
As for the book of Maguy Farah, the famous horoscope predictor and the journalist, many of the things that she said happened this year too.
May had the surprizes that turned measurements upside down, and the speaches that made a shock [the 7th of May attack that HA did and lamost caused a civil war]. America had the economic catastrophe that obliged countries to change their policies. The "blossoming hopes" happened after the "unexpected peace talks and solutions" took pace in Doha agreement and the talks between the Syrians and the Israelis started. The root changes in the policies and ealing of countries happened when France decided to open dialogue with Syria, and when Obama reached and he wants to open channels also with Syria and Iran.. She spoke also that when the same planet effects were there in I can't remember what year, the oil prices went so high. You know what happened to oil prices this year.
This year is awful according to her. It is the year of the fierce problems, where there will be trials to topple governments by force and to which governments will reply dicatatorically to. The economic problems will continue and will come to Europe and the ME. I am glad though that May will pass smoothly she said because our elections are in May, and they are so sensitive, and will decide if Lebanon will go back to Syria and its tools or will maintain the Cedar Revolution as the majority. September, as she said can have a war, and it reminds of the Israeli invasion , and lebanon might be in danger.
|
|
|
Post by gillianren on Dec 10, 2008 13:57:48 GMT -4
If you mean 2008, there's not much time left for governments to topple.
|
|
|
Post by sts60 on Dec 10, 2008 14:08:57 GMT -4
In other words, she said a lot of vague "predictions" and post-fit events to them, presented ongoing events and trends as "predictions" and claimed them as hits, and simply ignored anything that was specific enough to be counted as a definite miss.
My horoscope tells me not to listen to astrologers.
|
|