Oil over about 2070?

[acpinto]

Well i didn't post here for along time, and i come here very few times, but i think i can get my answer here.

If oil is about to finish before 2070, how can an European go to America and vice-versa?
There is no alternative fuel that can we use on airplanes, right?
So, is there an alternative plan?

[echnaton]

What make you think that we will be out of oil in 2070?

Liquid fuels can be synthesized from coal. The South African company Sasol is one of the large manufacturers of synthetic diesel but there are many others. The process is well known and according to Sasol, it produces a very high quality diesel. It is actually clear and burns with a very low amount of soot. However the byproduct of the manufacturing process is a tremendous amount of carbon dioxide so plants get build places that don't attract much attention. Places like remote South Africa and China.

There is more coal in the world that people really understand and much of it is close to the surface. Texas is covered with lignite. In some places you can pick it up off the ground. Just like the oil seeps that used to be more common.

While not as cheap, fuel synthesized from coal is a substitute for petroleum based fuels.

[Al Johnston]

Well, there's an annual or nearly annual rowing race, which I suppose is a start....

[BertL]

The world's gonna end in 2012 anyways. ;D

[acpinto]

echnaton said:

What make you think that we will be out of oil in 2070?

I´m sure that prognostic can be find on the internet, but i read it on a Portuguese newspaper .
The thing i heard about coal was they produce gas from coal not diesel, but if it is true and the synthetic diesel can produce enough horsepower ( or KW ) and doesn't be extremely volatile then we have something to burn in airplanes

[Halcyon Dayz, FCD]

You could make fuel from air if you wanted to.
It's got all the atoms required.
All you'd need would be energy, and there lies the problem.

South Africa developed there coal-to-fuel tech during the oil boycott.
And it was based on German work done during WWII.
The oil shortage was crippling for the Third Reich..

[Jason]

People have been saying "oil will be exhausted by x date" since the '70s. Each time we get near one of these dates we improve our technology and develop ways to find more deposits and make retrieval more economic for deposits we didn't go after before.
The U.S. is sitting on the largest deposits of oil shales in the world, and with the price of oil now there is more talk in developing these deposits (up to this point they have been uneconomic to develop with cheap oil available from other sources).
Frankly I don't think we're ever going to "run out" of oil, and if we ever run short we will develop a replacement technology that works just as well.

[acpinto]

jason said:

Frankly I don't think we're ever going to "run out" of oil, and if we ever run short we will develop a replacement technology that works just as well.

That don't seem to be the view of US goverment,
The article i read was stating that all the known oil woul'd last to about 2070. Of course we can discover more oil. And 2070 is a long distance way. But i don't think they will be a lot of oil to discover. I have heard that Açores could have some reservoir, but do you think there is more and more oil to be discovered?

[echnaton]

One of the principles in economics that most people don’t fully understand is the power of prices to drive innovation and substitution. It is a prime reason that subsidies cause waste, and while they provide benefits to the recipients, are ultimately wealth destroying. High oil prices make it worthwhile to invest in new energy and explorations technology because the investment can produce a reasonable return. And the high profit levels at energy companies provide the cash flow to make the investment.

Sasol has investigated building plants in Texas to use its coal to liquids technology. The main difficulty is how to sequester the CO2. I don’t know if the process can produce something more equivalent to jet fuel, but my understanding is that it is similar to kerosene and has a energy level near diesel. Sasol also has a natural gas to liquids process which is used in places where gas is a stranded asset or a waste product.

[acpinto]

echnaton said:

One of the principles in economics that most people don’t fully understand is the power of prices to drive innovation and substitution.

I understand the concept. That it is not my concern. My concern is that maybe we get to a point that for a technical reason we can't find a "civil flight capable company". I understand that military forces will always have flight capability. Tactically flight is the most important weapon, so no doubt that will always happen. But civil companies like American Airlines and
others may have to pay the price. No doubt we can use nuclear reactors on ships or even some kind of new fuel . But there is a doubt that we can find some liquid fuel to put in airplanes. By now every fuel he know or doesn't have power or it is to dangerous to put in airplanes.

[PhantomWolf]

Richard Branson has been looking into the idea of running his fleet of Virgin planes on biofuels, specifically ethanol created from the cellulose in plant wastes (thus not affecting food resourses by using sugar or corn.) I believe that Boeing is working with some of the engine manufactors to explore this idea as well.

[nomuse]

Somehow, the image of a jumbo jet that smells like a deep-fat tryer springs to mind...

(Okay, not THAT particular biofuel. There's a few fry-mobiles running around my town. Interesting smell they have.)

[Ginnie]

How much are you guys paying for gas for your vehicle right now?
I'm paying about a Cdn. dollar a litre.

[wdmundt]

I paid about $2.85/gallon yesterday.

[Jason]

Over $3.00/gallon. Despite the fact that we have oil wells and local refineries (I drive by some refineries every day), Utah seems to be ahead of much of the rest of the nation in gas prices.