Some predictions for 2006

[echnaton]

I’ll add a few observations to this.

13.The housing bubble burst

This begs the question that the housing market is a bubble, which is a matter of contention.

Historically housing has had a big industry cycle. Sometimes the decline has been strong enough to send the U.S. economy into a recession or at a minimum force many homebuilders into bankruptcy, a plausible definition of a bust. This housing cycle has seen significant capacity restraint in building of new housing and a consolidation of the industry into fewer builders that have become very large nationwide players. KB Home, DR Horton come to mind. These companies are far more rational players compared to the smaller builders in that they prefer to build only when they have orders for a house. They don’t often build on speculation and it is the speculative building that leads to excessive overbuilding, the bubble. Since the industry is more rational they have not had the overbuilding problem that has plagued past economic cycles. The term bubble is tossed around but it is used with such a vague meaning and no real reference to the current economic cycle that it is virtually meaningless. Every homebuilder I have talked to over that past few years have discussed their plans in the event of a downturn in demand. They appear to have the situation well in hand. No bubble no bust, the prediction is meaningless.

16. Oil companies profit continue to soar in 2006 as American demmand answers and get none.

Oil company profits will peak this year and flatten in the fourth quarter, unless there is a significant disruption in production.


Here are Reuters consensus estimates for three companies. The “a” following a number means actual earnings while the “e” are estimates. (Sorry for the formatting, I couldn’t figure out the table function)

ExxonMobil
FY (Dec.) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY
2005: 1.15a 1.23a 1.32a 1.65a 5.35a
2006: 1.41a 1.72a 1.58e 1.53e 6.21e
2007: 1.57e 1.58e 1.61e 1.66e 6.28e

Apache
FY (Dec.) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY
2005: 1.67a 1.95a 2.05a 2.35a 7.84a
2006: 1.97a 2.17a 1.91e 1.95e 8.00e
2007: 2.23e 2.13e 2.15e 2.20e 8.87e

ConocoPhilips
FY (Dec.) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY
2005: 2.06a 2.21a 2.68a 2.69a 9.63a
2006: 2.34a 2.83a 2.41e 2.29e 10.01e
2007: 2.19e 2.55e 2.48e 2.49e 9.48e



Notice that the fourth quarter of 2006 and in the latter two cases the third quarter show lower earnings than in the same quarter of the prior year. People get no answers to the oil issue because they don’t understand economics or don’t want to accept rational answers when given. Sort of like the Apollo hoax believers.

[lazarusty]

Unfortunately, the original source of the predictions on the OP no longer appears to exist. However, from memory, someone made that list based on another list that had been "prophesied". However, that original list did not give a specfic year. The year was assumed to be 2006. As you well know, if we assume, we make an ass out of u and me. ;D

...perhaps, particularly me, in this case...

...but never mind, all water under the bridge...

Yeah, there's too many people crying wolf so when a real warning comes no-one will listen because it looks like just another false flag. Guess I've got caught up in it sorry.

But, life goes on. So, onto the next prediction.

In case anyone didn't read it see Next Prediction.

October 20th isn't very far away now...

[Jason]

So, your position appears to be "okay, so I was wrong. This time I'm right."

[lazarusty]

Actually, it's more tenancious than that. It's "This time I may be right." ;D

Though it's not actually me, it's all these other people whose predictions I'm reading...

[echnaton]

lazarusty said:

Actually, it's more tenancious than that. It's "This time I may be right." ;D

Though it's not actually me, it's all these other people whose predictions I'm reading...

Do you believe any of the posters of these predictions are right in any non trivial way?

[lazarusty]

I think the trigger event predicted for this month, possible within a day or so, is a very real possibility, though it may be towards the end of the month.

[PhantomWolf]

So when we get into next month with nothing happening, you'll.....?

[Eddie Hitler]

46. People will make predictions.

[sts60]

Unfortunately, the original source of the predictions on the OP no longer appears to exist. However, from memory, someone made that list based on another list that had been "prophesied". However, that original list did not give a specfic year. The year was assumed to be 2006....

I am pretty sure you gave end-of-year-2005 as a timeframe. But no one has chimed in with specific evidence, so we'll let it pass.

Yeah, there's too many people crying wolf so when a real warning comes no-one will listen because it looks like just another false flag. Guess I've got caught up in it sorry.

I ask you again - what specifically would it take for you to acknowledge that there is nothing to these prophets and seers? That they have no special insight into the future? (Most of them don't seem to have very good insight into the present, for that matter.) Remember, I gave you a specific example of what would swing me over to your side.

But, life goes on. So, onto the next prediction.

The next failed prediction.

October 20th isn't very far away now...

...It's come and gone with the rest of the month.

This judgement will begin with something man-made but then some "natural" disasters will follow - it will be a domino effect - once the judgements begin there will be one thing after another including earthquakes, volcanos, tsunamis, nuclear attacks, biological warfare and invasion. Somewhere in there is also the assasination of Bush - that could be the first "man-made" thing, I don't know.

Built-in waffling aside, none of these things has happened. There was no especially notable "man-made" event since your original post in that thread, no notable earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, and certainly no nuclear or biological attacks, invasions, or Presidential assassinations.

The most scary bit - according to one guy (who apprently has never been wrong and ususally doesn't make date predictions) - he claims he was told by God that it would begin six weeks from when he was told , which was September 3rd. That means this first event (that will make the world sit up and take notice) will begin anytime after Oct 13th.

This guy was wrong. And God didn't tell him anything. He needs to seek professional help.

[jaydeehess]

Maybe God was using a different calender. Didn't N.Korea test a nuke on Oct 9th?

However, making a prediction 3 weeks in advance is not all that hard. Pick a major trouble in the world that is spoken of a lot in the press, make a prediction that is fairly vague and wait a few weeks.

N.Korea had been threatening to test a nuke.
Make a vague prediction of an event that will have the world taking notice, will occur in three weeks.
N.Korea tests a weapon, you look like a marvel.
N.Korea doesn't test a weapon but Google buys youtube or Jeff Skilling gets 23 years in jail or Urkranian Communists clash with riot police, you still look like a marvel(just a little less so)

[jaydeehess]

phantomwolf said:

19. One of the Big 3 is going down for the count

Huh? What big three?

[.

Probably American auto makers. Shouldhave specified since not everyone is an American who would recognize the phrase.

It goes down as a probable no brainer but so far wrong. Given the troubles especially at Ford but affecting all 3.

On December 17, at exactly 3:33:33, a bird will eat a bug.

Not where I live. All the bugs are hibernating by then and birds that eat them have flown south.

[PhantomWolf]

8. Repuplicans will win 2006 mid term elections as democrats still can not find footing in matters in security and poilcy they blew it.

Looking totally wrong, the Dem's are leading in the polls currently

And now totally wrong. The Democrats won with a Landslide victory that even they probably wouldn't have dreamed of in their wildest imaginings.

[Jason]

It's a wrong prediction all right, but it wasn't a Democratic landslide (control of the Senate probably isn't going to be decided until some time in December at the earliest, and even if it goes Democratic it will be by the narrowest of margins) and the predictions by the pollsters seem to have been very accurate this time around (in stark contrast to 2000 and 2004), so it would be inaccurate to say they didn't dream of it.

[echnaton]

but it wasn't a Democratic landslide

I agree. The apportionment in the House did change quite a bit but it seems a result of a relatively small change in the number of voters. Significant, but not what I would call a landslide either. The Democrats didn’t even need to define themselves for this election, just work the protest vote. It is a tenuous victory that is reversible if the Republicans get the message and restate principles that appeal more broadly to the party.

And yes, the prediction was completely wrong.

[sts60]

Unfortunately, the original source of the predictions on the OP no longer appears to exist. However, from memory, someone made that list based on another list that had been "prophesied". However, that original list did not give a specfic year. The year was assumed to be 2006....

2006 is over. Your previous predictions about Chinese troops under NYC and the assassination of the President have officially failed. Do you concede they were wrong?